Preventing pandemics costs far less than controlling them

Otautahi - Preventing pandemics costs far less than controlling them. Tens of billions spent on habitat and surveillance would avoid trillions of dollars to stamp out a pandemic, a new peer-reviewed study says.

Published in the journal Science Advances, the Duke University research compared the costs of preventing a pandemic to those incurred trying to control one.

It turns out prevention really is the best medicine. They estimated it could greatly reduce the likelihood of another pandemic by investing as little as one 20th of the losses incurred so far from covid into conservation measures designed to help stop the spread of these viruses from wildlife to humans in the first place.

A smart place to start, the study shows, would be investing in systems to end tropical deforestation and international wildlife trafficking, stop the wild meat trade in China, and improve disease surveillance and control in wild and domestic animals worldwide.

Covid, SARS, HIV, Ebola and many other viruses that have emerged in the last century originated in wild places and wild animals before spreading to humans, the study says.

 Tropical forest edges where humans have cleared more than 25 percent of the trees for farming or other purposes are hotbeds for these animal-to-human virus transmissions, as are markets where wild animals, dead or alive, are sold.

If people don't stop destroying the environment and selling wild species as pets, meat or medicine, these diseases are just going to keep coming.

As this current pandemic shows, controlling them is inordinately costly and difficult. It's been two years since covid emerged and the cure still isn't working. Not enough people are vaccinated, where shots are available and most countries can afford them, and not enough vaccines are going to other countries that can't afford them.

The new study, by epidemiologists, economists, ecologists, and conservation biologists at 21 institutions, calculates that by investing an amount equal to just five percent of the estimated annual economic losses associated with human deaths from covid into environmental protection and early surveillance, the risks of future pandemics could be reduced by as much as half.

That could help save around 1.6 million lives a year and reduce mortality costs by around $10 trillion annually.

One key recommendation of the new study is to use some of this money to train more veterinarians and wildlife disease biologists.

Another key recommendation is to create a global database of virus genomics that could be used to pinpoint the source of newly emerging pathogens early enough to slow or stop their spread, and, ultimately, speed the development of vaccines and diagnostic tests.

Prevention is much cheaper than cures and epidemics should be prevented before they break out.