NZ population growth lowest since 1986

Te Whanganui-a-Tara - New Zealand's resident population provisionally grew by 12,700 or 0.2 percent over the year, to reach 5.12 million at 30 June 2022, Stats NZ says.

This is the lowest annual growth rate since June 1986 when the population barely changed.

New Zealand’s population change is a combination of natural increase, which is births minus deaths and net migration, population estimates and projections acting manager Rebekah Hennessey.

“The net migration loss combined with a lower natural increase has resulted in this low level of population growth,” Hennessey says.

In the year ended June 2022, the number of births remained around 61,000 while the number of deaths grew by 10.1 percent to 36,900 from 33,500 in the year ended June 2021, due partly to population ageing.

This led to natural increase reducing to 24,100 in the year ended June 2022 from 27,700 in the year ended June 2021. Deaths increase as population ages has more information on the impact of an ageing population on the number of deaths.

The narrowing gap between births and deaths is projected to continue, according to Stats NZ’s national population projections.

Among broad age groups, the population aged 65 years and over was the fastest growing, with an annual increase of 2.8 percent or 22,800 people, in the year ended June 2022. Most of this increase was a result of people born in the mid-1950s turning 65 and moving into this age group.

In contrast, the number of people aged 15–39 years shrank by 0.5 percent, or 8700 people. This drop is mainly due to a population loss from migration, as well as more people moving out of this age group than moving into this age group from younger ages.

Births and deaths releases provide statistics on the number of births and deaths of people resident in New Zealand that are registered during a given period, along with selected fertility and mortality rates.

They may differ from statistics presented elsewhere that relate to all births and deaths registered in New Zealand or to births and deaths occurring during a given period.

In the year ended June 2022, compared with the year ended June 2021:

• there were 60,009 live births registered, up from 57,723

• there were 36,726 deaths registered, up from 33,486

• the total fertility rate was 1.69 births per woman, up from 1.61

• the infant mortality rate was 3.85 deaths per 1,000 live births, down from 4.37

The increase in deaths in the June 2022 year (9.7 percent) was higher than the average annual increase over the previous decade. The latest increase partly reflects an ageing population – there are increasing numbers and proportions of the population in older ages, where most deaths occur. However, there were also higher death rates at older ages in March to June 2022.